A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

千岛湖溶解氧的动态分布特征及其影响因素分析

基于2011~2012年1~12月千岛湖6个站点的溶解氧浓度实时监测数据,分析了千岛湖溶解氧的垂直分布以及时空分布特征,并探讨了影响水体溶解氧动态分布特征的影响因子.结果表明,溶解氧分布特征有明显的垂向差异以及季节差异.冬季,平均溶解氧值较高,除大坝前站点,其余各站点溶解氧无显著垂向差异;夏季,溶解氧垂向差异显著大于春秋两季.水深较深的小金山、三潭岛和大坝前站点其夏季溶解氧最大值出现在真光层,分别达到11.59、12.52和10.96 mg·L-1.千岛湖表层溶解氧最大值出现在春季,而最小值出现在秋季.相关性分析结果表明,溶解氧与水温、pH、叶绿素a浓度的相关性存在季节性差异.夏季,水温与溶解氧存在极其显著的线性相关,温度热力分层是影响溶解氧在夏季垂直分布的关键因素.春夏季,pH、叶绿素a浓度与溶解氧的相关系数较高,主要与浮游植物光合作用有关.     

春、夏季长江口及其邻近海域溶解N2O的分布和海-气交换通量

分别于2012年3月和7月对长江口及其邻近海域进行了调查,对水体中溶解氧化亚氮(N2O)的分布及海-气交换通量进行了研究.结果表明,春季长江口及其邻近海域表层海水中溶解N2O浓度范围为9.34~49.08 nmol·L-1,平均值为(13.27±6.40)nmol·L-1.夏季表层溶解N2O浓度范围为7.27~27.81 nmol·L-1、平均值为(10.62±5.03)nmol·L-1.两航次表、底层海水中溶解N2O浓度相差不大.长江口溶解N2O浓度由近岸向外海逐渐降低,受陆源输入影响显著.溶解N2O浓度高值出现在长江口最大浑浊带附近,这主要是由于水体中较高的硝化速率造成的.温度是影响N2O分布的另一个重要因素,对溶解N2O浓度有双重作用.春季和夏季表层海水中N2O饱和度范围分别为86.9%~351.3%和111.7%~396.0%,平均值分别为(111.5±41.4)%和(155.9±68.4)%,大部分站位处于过饱和状态.利用LM86、W92和RC01公式分别计算了长江口及其邻近海域N2O的海-气交换通量,春季分别为(3.2±10.9)、(5.5±19.3)和(12.2±52.3)μmol·(m2·d)-1,夏季分别为(7.3±12.4)、(12.7±20.4)和(20.4±35.9)μmol·(m2·d)-1,初步估算出长江口及其邻近海域的年平均释放量分别为0.6×10-2Tg·a-1(LM86)、1.1×10-2Tg·a-1(W92)、2.0×10-2Tg·a-1(RC01).长江口及其邻近海域虽然只占全球海洋总面积的0.02%,但其释放的N2O占全球海洋释放量的0.06%,表明长江口及其邻近海域是产生和释放N2O的活跃区域.     

Spatial distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in an e-waste dismantling region in Southeast China: Use of apple snail (Ampullariidae) as a bioindicator

Fengjiang is a large e-waste dismantling site located in southeast China. In this paper, apple snail and soil samples were collected from this e-waste dismantling site and 25 vicinal towns to investigate the contamination status, spatial distributions and congener patterns of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated biphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Total PCB concentrations in apple snails (3.78-1812 ng g⁻¹ dry weight (dw)) were significant higher than that in soil samples (0.48-90.1 ng g⁻¹ dw). PBDE (excluding BDE 209) concentrations in apple snail and soil samples ranged from 0.09 to 27.7 ng g⁻¹ dw and 0.06 to 31.2 ng g⁻¹ dw, respectively. Concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs in snails and soils correlated negatively with the distance from Fengjiang. Both the concentrations and profiles of the pollutants were significantly correlated (p < 0.05) between the snail and soil samples, indicating the suitability of apple snail as a reliable bioindicator for PCBs and PBDEs contamination in this region. Relatively high concentrations of PCBs and PBDEs at locations far from e-waste dismantling sites implied that these pollutants have been transported to surrounding regions.     

Long-Term Changes in Game Species Over a Long Period of Transformation in the Iberian Mediterranean Landscape

Agricultural change has transformed large areas of traditional farming landscapes, leading to important changes in the species community assemblages in most European countries. We suspect that the drastic changes in land-use that have occurred in Andalusia (southern Spain) over recent decades, may have affected the distribution and abundance of game species in this region. This article compares the distribution of the main game species in Andalusia during the 1960s and 1990s, using data from maps available from the Mainland Spanish Fish, Game and National Parks Service and from recent datasets on hunting yield distributions, respectively. Big-game and small-game species were significantly segregated in southern Spain during the 1990s, as two clearly independent chorotypes (groups of species whose abundances are similarly distributed) were obtained from the classification analysis. In contrast, big-game and small-game species were not significantly segregated several decades ago, when there was only one chorotype consisting of small-game species and wild boar. The other three ungulates did not constitute a significant chorotype, as they showed positive correlations with some species in the group mentioned above. These changes seem to be a consequence of the transformations that have occurred in the Iberian Mediterranean landscape over the last few decades. The abandoning of traditional activities, and the consequent formation of dense scrubland and woodland, has led to an expansion of big-game species, and a decrease of small-game species in mountain areas. Moreover, agricultural intensification has apparently depleted small-game species populations in some agricultural areas. On the other hand, the increasingly intensive hunting management could be artificially boosting this segregation between small-game and big-game species. Our results suggest that the conservation and regeneration of traditional agricultural landscapes (like those predominating in the 1960s) should be a priority for the conservation of small-game species.     

APPLICATION OF ADVANCES IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: Flood frequency analyses are frequently being made using widely available computer programs. Serious errors can result from blind acceptance of such results. Visual interpretation of observed flood series can be used for evaluation on frequency paper with compatible scales. Such frequency papers are presented in the paper. In ephemeral streams, more infrequent floods may constitute a separate set from the more frequent floods because (a) runoff producing storms cover only a portion of the contributing area, (b) transmission losses in the normally dry streambed may reduce the peak flow, and (c) some runoff may be stored in stock water ponds which therefore leads to partial area runoff. The Cunnane plotting position used in this paper is superior to the more widely used Weibull equation, having a mathematically sound basis for locating observed floods on an assumed probability.     

Toxicity and subcellular distribution of cadmium in wheat as affected by dissolved organic acids

We aim to investigate the effects of humic acid (HA) and citric acid (CA) on the toxicity and subcellular distribution of Cd in wheat. Results show that the toxicity and uptake of Cd decreased with increasing HA. The EC₅₀ values of Cd increased from 3.36 μmol/L to 4.96 and 7.33 μmol/L at 50 and 250 mg/L HA, respectively, but decreased to 1.39 μmol/L in the presence of CA based on free ion activity model (FIAM). HA decreased the relative subcellular distribution of Cd in the heat-denatured proteins (decreased from 54% to 33%) but increased Cd in the heat-stable proteins in root (from 25% to 50%) at 7.61 μmol/L {Cd²⁺} (free Cd activity), which resulted in decreasing Cd toxicity. However, CA increased Cd toxicity due to the increased internalization of Cd although the relative subcellular distributions of Cd exhibited a decrease in the heat-denatured proteins and increase in the granule fraction compared to the control at high-level Cd. The FIAM could not predict the toxicity of Cd in the presence of organic acids. Alternatively, the internal Cd accumulation and subcellular Cd concentration were better to describe the toxicity of Cd to wheat.     

改良剂对4种木本植物的铅锌耐性、亚细胞分布和化学形态的影响

本研究以4种耐铅锌木本植物夹竹桃(Nerium oleander)、栾树(Koelreuteria paniculata)、泡桐(Paulownia)和苎麻(Boehmeria)为材料,在不同改良剂浓度下(CK组:100%铅锌矿渣±少量磷肥、改良一:85%铅锌矿渣±10%泥炭土±5%菌肥±少量磷肥、改良二:75%铅锌矿渣±20%泥炭土±5%菌肥±少量磷肥),进行了耐性木本植物富集与转移能力以及Pb、Zn在4种木本植物不同部位的亚细胞分布和化学形态分析.结果表明:14种植物种植后基质中重金属的浓度基本低于种植前,夹竹桃与苎麻改良一与改良二之间差异不显著,泡桐改良二效果显著优于改良一,栾树改良一效果显著优于改良二;4种植物地上部对Pb、Zn的富集系数都比较低,但具有较高的转移系数,适当的基质改良有利于提高植物对Pb、Zn的富集与转移能力.2Pb、Zn在4种植物各部位的亚细胞分布以细胞壁组分和可溶性组分为主,在线粒体、叶绿体和细胞核等细胞器组分中分布较少;与CK组相比,两改良组使可溶性组分对Pb的滞留作用和细胞壁对Zn的滞留作用在增强.3Pb在植物各部位的化学形态以盐酸、氯化钠和乙醇提取态为主,其他化学形态含量极少;Zn则以残留态、盐酸、醋酸、氯化钠、水和乙醇提取态这6种形态存在,且都具较高分配比例.与CK组相比,两改良组使植物各部位活性较弱的Pb的化学形态比例减少,活性较强的化学形态比例增加;Zn则是根部活性较强的化学形态比例增加,地上部活性较强的化学形态比例减少.     

千岛湖水体氮的垂向分布特征及来源解析

选取千岛湖水深0.2,5,10,20,30和40m处水样进行分析,利用氮氧同位素和稳定同位素模型（SIAR）研究千岛湖水体氮（N）的垂向分布特征,分析水体N的来源并计算各N源的贡献率.结果表明,硝酸盐（NO₃^-）和溶解性有机氮（DON）是千岛湖水体总溶解氮（TDN）的主要形式,分别占溶解态N的57.9%和39.7%.千岛湖水体δ¹⁵N-NO₃^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-的平均值分别为4.5‰和4.3‰.上层水体（0~10m）中,硝化作用和浮游植物的同化作用共同控制水体N的形态组成和氮氧同位素值（δ¹⁵N-NO₃^-和δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-）的变化.中层水体（10~30m）中,硝化作用是主要的生物地球化学过程,使得水体NO₃^-含量增加而δ¹⁸O-NO₃^-值减小.底层水体（30~40m）受到硝化作用、底泥N释放和反硝化作用的共同影响.化肥是千岛湖水体NO₃^-的最主要来源,在S1和S2处的贡献率分别为51.9%和30.6%.新安江上游的农业面源污染使得S1处化肥贡献率远高于S2.土壤N是仅次于化肥的第二大水体NO₃^-来源,在S1和S2处的贡献率分别为17.8%和27.8%.此外,底泥对底层水体NO₃^-的贡献不可忽视.     

鄱阳湖微囊藻毒素时空分布格局及其与理化和生物因子的关系

本文分别于2012年4月(春季)、8月(夏季)、10月(秋季)和2013年1月(冬季)在鄱阳湖进行了4次野外调查和样品采集,采用超高效液相色谱-串联质谱仪(UPLC-MS/MS)对鄱阳湖水柱中常见的3种微囊藻毒素(MC-RR、MC-YR和MCLR)的质量浓度进行定量分析,探寻了微囊藻毒素(microcystins,MCs)质量浓度的时空变化规律及其与湖泊环境理化因子和生物因子之间的关系.结果表明,MC-RR是鄱阳湖MCs的主要毒素种类.胞内微囊藻毒素(intracellular MCs,IMCs)与微囊藻生物量(r=0.47,P0.01)、颤藻生物量(r=0.68,P0.01)、蓝藻生物量(r=0.56,P0.01)、Chl-a(r=0.28,P0.01)之间均具有显著的正相关关系,但与鱼腥藻生物量之间没有明显的相关关系(P0.05),这说明微囊藻和颤藻是鄱阳湖微囊藻毒素的主要产毒藻类.IMCs与水温(r=0.51,P0.01)、透明度(r=0.69,P0.01)、Fe(r=0.43,P0.01)和Zn(r=0.43,P0.01)之间均呈现显著的正相关关系,与TN(r=-0.44,P0.01)、TP(r=-0.29,P0.01)、NO-2-N(r=-0.28,P0.05)、NH+4-N(r=-0.33,P0.05)、Ca(r=-0.34,P0.01)和Mg(r=-0.35,P0.05)均呈现显著的负相关关系,但与pH、PO3-4-P、NO-3-N、电导率、高锰酸盐指数、Cu离子之间的相关关系不显著(P0.05),这说明光照强度(透明度反映)、氮、磷、水温是控制鄱阳湖微囊藻毒素产生的重要因子,金属离子Ca、Mg、Fe、Zn在一定程度上能影响微囊藻毒素的产生.鄱阳湖IMCs和胞外微囊藻毒素(extracellular MCs,EMCs)呈现相似的季节变化趋势,即夏季最高,其次为秋季,冬季和春季较低.鄱阳湖IMCs的空间分布整体上呈现东部湖汊群、松门山周围以及蚌湖和蚌湖进入鄱阳湖的入湖口较高,其它区域较低的趋势,而EMCs的高值区位于松门山周围和蚌湖及其入湖口.